Hobbes proposes to answer the argument of the "unjust fool" and thereby show that the reason requires accepting the sovereign and submission to civil law. As Lloyd sees it, the fool's argument is this:
1. If injustice is ever reasonable, justice cannot be a rule of reason.
2. If an action most conduces to one's ends, then it is reasonable to perform that action.
3. Injustice sometimes (most) conduces to one's ends.
4. Hence, injustice is sometimes reasonable.
5. Therefore, justice cannot be a rule of reason.
The comes this: "First, and fundamentally, the Foole's principle of inference as contained in premise (2) is false. The Foole thinks that if an action turns out well, it cannot have been against reason to perform it." (304) This argument against the Foole fails because it is cast improperly. The arguments for the Laws of Nature (and the derivation of the sovereign's authority) are all forward-looking. Those arguments are about what may reasonably expect, are all about what a person in a certain situation should will come to be. What the agent in the state of nature reasons about is the future. Nowhere else is the reasoning about the past. But here, the argument against the Foole is that it is a mistake to think that because things turned out to favor the personal ends (rather than justice) that it was reasonable to act so as to obtain the personal ends. In short, the argument is that we cannot tell from the facts of how action turned out back to what it was best to do in the first instance. But the latter point is not properly connected to the argument of the Foole, which, like the explanation of the Laws of Nature, should be forward looking entirely. The decision about action has to be first, and the evaluation should be made as of the time of the decision for action. So there is no problem with the second premise. At least, there is no real argument on these pages which casts doubt on premise two.
Lloyd's examples concern a winning lottery ticket purchase -- arguing that one cannot infer from the position of having won the lottery ticket that it was reasonable to buy it. Granting this point does nothing to undermine premise two. For the same reasons that what makes it unreasonable to buy a losing lottery ticket is not really that it is a losing ticket. That argument is based on the extraordinarily bad odds of winning when one is considering whether to purchase. And moving to that time point seems rather to support premise two. If an action is the one which is most likely to conduce to one's ends, it is reasonable to perform that action, for a Hobbesian. I don't see what means are available not to accept the premise.
The fortuitous outcome does not make the conduct rational, but in large because the outcome is not what goes to whether the conduct or action was rational or reasonable in the first place. So pointing to the fortuity is not pointing in the right direction.
Perhaps it is that decisions are reasonable only if grounded in a reasonable process of thought (I don't see how this helps the Hobbesian, but assume anyway). That assumption looks dubious. There are certainly times when non-rational decision processes are sufficient for the job. We do not reason to our mates, and it can be rational to preclude later rational consideration of one's options.
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