I wonder what Hamas' plan is. The fight with Israel is not one Hamas can win, not even by stalemate. Its rockets are too inaccurate and small and infrequent to constitute a military danger. They harass civilians, but cause very little injury or death (12 deaths in a year is not all that serious). The rocket attacks are not going to drive Israelis out of the area near the border, and do nothing at all of military value. So the point must lie elsewhere. One might think that it is symbolic resistance. As symbol, the attacks also seem ineffective. Compare to IRA or ETA or ANC attacks. In part, Hamas lacks the symbolic impact because it is not in Israel, and, I think, maybe because it is using rockets. (I am not cure about the last -- there is something else that is ineffective as symbolic about what Hamas has been up to.) The attacks seem designed, or at least better designed, to push Israel into attacking Gaza. And that seems a foolish aim ultimately. There is gain to Hamas when Israel attacks. I don't see reason to think Gazans would be much different than others when it comes to being under attack. During the attack, people rally round the flag. (We don't expect Israelis to give up and run from the borders because of Hamas rocket attacks -- isn't the psychology pretty much the same?) And with high levels of destruction of the infrastructure attributable to the invaders, it seems unlikely that post-war there will be a serious shift away from Hamas. Anyway, it is unlikely that anyone in opposition would be in a position to do very much. Weapons would be even more concentrated with Hamas, those who could exit likely would have (and they are the ones most likely I think to be the opposition). At least, over the foreseeable short future, then, Hamas gets to consolidate rule, but over an increasingly impoverished place. Maybe there are ideological rewards. It is a religious movement and they frequently are driven by completely idiotic ideas. What is clear is that the rocket attacks don't move Gaza closer to a state, and do not move anyone closer to either two state or one state solutions. They don't make Palestine any more likely. Seems like a diversion. And completely without justification. So immoral, even setting aside the culpability from using indiscriminate weapons aimed at nothing in particular. Fails as guerrilla war or liberation.
Recent Comments