News of the day, of course, is Palin. The announcement takes a good bit of wind out of the reporting on Obama's speech, which is a help to McCain in the short term. But, Friday afternoon of Labor Day weekend seems to me a pretty poor choice. I would not expect people to t watch the news or read the papers over a long weekend - is there something special about this Friday afternoon?
Hard to say much about her. There is a great deal of favorable response among women Clinton supporters. Take a look at TalkLeft for example, or the Clinton forum. It is impossible to tell whether any of that stays over the next couple of weeks. One reason is that there is not a lot of precedent for tracking the behavior. Ferraro did not peal off Republican women, but that was a long time ago and the demographic was not notably woman-identified or feminist. Clinton's more vociferous supporters are a good deal more feminist, and a fair portion pretty plainly support her and now care about Palin because of sex. (Certainly at least as good a reason to support someone as where they live.) There is not much policy overlap, so any shift would have to be explained some other way. That explanation - vote for a woman - is no worse than lots of other reasons people cast ballots. Advertising differentiation is not aimed at a reasoned decision.
In any event, I don't think Palin ultimately adds much to McCain and does not cure or mitigate the problems he and his campaign face. One of McCain's problems is that he had serious difficulty getting 10,000 to turn out for the Dayton event, and ultimately failed to fill even that small space. He has others, but that is the one that should be keeping the team up at night. (I don't think elections are much about policy -- too few have any idea what policies the candidates advance, for one thing.)
Palin makes no difference to me because I will not vote for McCain. Folks in the undecided encampment? Who knows. My first line of attack is to describe the VP as a heartbeat away, and ask if she is that person. Nothing more, no need to talk about the career.
Can't help but think of Battlestar Gallactica.
Structurally, the election favors Obama still.
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